Are Illinois Farmland Values Falling? What Western and Central Illinois Sales Are Showing
What the Data Says and What It Does Not Say
The University of Illinois Extension summary of the 2025 ISPFMRA land value survey describes the Illinois farmland market as volatile and steady to slightly negative. That language covers a wide range of outcomes, and it is worth being specific about what it means before drawing conclusions about what a seller or buyer should do in the fall of 2026.
The ISPFMRA data for western Illinois showed Excellent ground averaging about $15,400 per acre and Good ground about $11,300, with both trending modestly lower compared to the prior survey period. Average ground came in around $7,900 and Fair ground around $7,000. Those numbers are 2025 survey data — they are the most current full-year data set available, and they represent what the market cleared at in actual transactions during that period. They are not projections and they are not asking prices.
What the survey data does not show is the distribution of transactions within those averages. The ISPFMRA also reported that estate sales accounted for 57 percent of Illinois farmland transfers in the most recent data, and that debt-related sales rose to 11 percent of transfers. Those two categories together account for more than two-thirds of the market. A market dominated by estate and distress sales does not behave like a market driven by discretionary sellers, and average values in that kind of market require interpretation.
What Estate Sales Are Doing to the Average
When 57 percent of farmland transfers are estate-driven, the sales are frequently motivated by a need to settle the estate, distribute proceeds among heirs, or pay an estate tax bill — not by a seller who has chosen to maximize sale price and is willing to wait for the right buyer. Estate sales in a thin rural market sometimes price at or slightly below market to produce a quick settlement, and those transactions become comparable sales that influence what appraisers and buyers expect to pay on the next piece of ground.
For a landowner who is not selling because of an estate settlement, this is a nuance that matters. The comparable sales in your county may be dominated by motivated sellers who did not test the market the way a discretionary seller would. An auction where you set the terms, prepare the property properly, and market it to a qualified buyer pool can produce a different result than the estate averages suggest.
In Adams, Pike, and Brown counties, the recreational and hunting character of significant acreage separates some ground from the pure agricultural market. A 200-acre tract in Pike County that carries good timber, water, and deer pressure does not sell against the same comparable set as 200 acres of open row-crop ground in Adams County. The buyers are different, the motivations are different, and the prices reflect that.
What I Am Seeing at Auction in Western Illinois
The fall 2026 auction calendar in Scott, Morgan, Coles, and neighboring counties has active listings, and the results at the bidding level tell a more granular story than the annual survey averages. Buyers at auction are still showing up in meaningful numbers for well-titled, well-documented ground with strong soil productivity. What has become more selective is the buyer pool for ground that carries uncertainty — unclear tile systems, title issues, absentee management history, or leases that are difficult to terminate.
Tile documentation has become a more significant due diligence item in the last two auction cycles. Buyers who lost bids on ground that later revealed drainage problems have become more careful, and properties that come to auction with actual tile maps, drainage district records, and maintenance history sell better than comparable ground without that documentation. That is a practical observation about what moves a buyer at the bid level, not a theoretical point about data.
The debt-related sale category rising to 11 percent of transfers is worth watching but does not yet indicate a distress market. Eleven percent is elevated compared to the recent low, but it is not the 20 to 30 percent levels that historically signal a market correction. Working capital stress in the grain farming sector is real at current margin levels, but it has not yet translated into a volume of forced sales that would reset price levels broadly.
Should You Sell This Fall or Wait?
The answer to that question depends more on your specific situation than on the market average. A landowner who needs to sell for estate settlement, liquidity, or retirement purposes should not wait on a market signal that may not arrive. The ground is worth what a motivated, qualified buyer will pay today, and a well-run auction process in a county where the ground is known produces that number better than most alternatives.
A landowner who does not need to sell and is waiting for the market to recover to the 2022 peak has a different calculation. The Extension data does not indicate a recovery in western Illinois Excellent ground in the near term. The pressures that have held values steady to slightly negative — narrowing farm margins, elevated carrying costs, working capital concerns among tenant farmers — have not changed materially.
Call Archer Realty if you are a landowner in Adams, Pike, Brown, Schuyler, or a neighboring county who wants a current broker opinion of value on your ground. The answer to sell or hold starts with knowing what the ground is actually worth in the fall 2026 market.
Jared Williams is the Managing Broker and owner of Archer Realty & Auction LLC, a licensed auctioneer serving western and central Illinois farmland and recreational land transactions. Start the conversation at archerrealty.net.
